The Future Course Of Politics Takes Shape.

While David Cameron talks of renegotiating repatriation of powers from the EU, one of his MPs thinks there is another way. Douglas Carswell who brought the motion to expel Michael Martin as Speaker, is starting a new initiative. He is one of the few reamining MPs who still believes in Parliament. He is young (relatively), incorruptible and will not back down.

With only one activist MP in Parliament, who operates beyond the system of media corruption, there is a chance that a political movement could be born from the back benches. With the Front Bench so hopelessly compromised, where else could the democratic revival of Britain come from?

Carswell could maybe persuade other MPs to join him in his campaign. It would be tantamount to creating a political party within a party, if he did. If Labour's vote collapses to 120, giving Cameron 450 seats, the only real opposition might become internal opposition.

The Party would not fracture, but it might provide its own opposition, forcing Cameron to hold a referendum to quell rebellion. Eurosceptics should be voting in as many COnservative MPs as they can.

Open Europe reports -

Meanwhile, PA reports that Conservative MP Douglas Carswell has sent an email to his constituents in which he wrote, "I want you to know that I have begun a campaign for a referendum on the EU.

All three parties promised us a referendum. Yet somehow it hasn't happened. I think that's wrong." He told his constituents it was "time to let the British people have their say...No one in Britain under the age of 52 has had the chance to vote in a referendum on Europe. For years it has been left to professional politicians and diplomats to decide EU policy. I believe it is now time to let the people have their say."

Vote Euroscepticism Into Power

This is the last post I will be sending onto The Tap for a bit. I'll be back but have personal business to attend to, which necessitates absence from the UK til roughly March.

I will be back before the General Election.

My thoughts for eurosceptics who doubt Cameron are this.

You should still vote for him.

Why?

Because UKIP is a wasted vote, as is BNP.

There is potentially a far more fruitful source of rebellion against Cameron, if he goes slow on his EU repatriation of powers programme, from inside the Conservative Party. People like Bill Cash, Douglas Carswell will be sure to wind up the situation if they see Cameron backsliding on his promises.

They will be able to be far more aggressive in attack if Cameron has a big majority, and equally, he can be far more tolerant of revolt.

The problem is now that the public need to be educated as to why Britain is in such a mess. The more Conservative eurosceptic MPs there are to fuel a rebellion, the more the public will get to hear of EU issues. If Cameron gets a majority of 200 plus, these MPs can open up quicker and more frequently, becoming the effective opposition.

There could be more Conservative MPs opposing Cameron than Labour MPs. That would be a much better situation for eurosceptics. Backing UKIP is the same as backing Labour. Why would any sensible eurosceptic wish to assist the enemy?

Cameron with 450 plus seats would be an unstoppable force. That level of victory is currently 12-1 at the bookies. In six months time, however that could come about, if all eurosceptics rallied and voted as one.

There could be two Conservtaive Parties in the House Of Commons, the loyals and the sceptics, a rerun of the wets and the drys all over again. Think About It. The drys can achieve far more to stop the wets if they can hold a Commons majority on their own. Conservative europhiles are a tiny minority. If Cameron proves to be the traitor some seem to believe he will be (I don't), he could easily be toppled by the vast majority of his own euroscetic MPs.

VOTE CONSERVATIVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And keep voting Conservative.

Fell The Wall. Your vote is the sledgehammer that euroscepticism requires. Labour with 100 MPs. Conservative with 500. The EU would be finished, and UKIP out of a job.

Yes Richard. This Is A Thriller.

Richard North writes to me on www.eureferendum.com comments - 'Have you ever tried writing thrillers?'.

No need. And no point. Fact is stranger than fiction. That is where you scientists come unstuck. You always want events to be logical. The plain and simple truth is never plain and rarely simple.(paraphrase of Oscar).

You are requiring Cameron to be a bigger writer of fiction with your theories, than anything I have said. I merely describe what I see. I remember a meeting with his earlier adviser just as he won the leadership. Few words were spoken, but I took a read from that meeting in which I tried to discuss possible tactics for the issue of the EU. Effectively my ideas were rebuffed. But in a way which puzzled me at the time, and I have often gone back to it in my mind since. There was and is definitely a deliberate attempt being made to park the issue.

But that, I am equally convinced, tells you absolutely nothing about the future course of events once Cameron wins power. Follow the words that are used by Hague on priorities. And judge from Hague's general demeanour, his amazing, almost deliberate weakness and look of a wimp desperate to cave in as soon as he can. Yes this is certainly a game of bluff and double bluff.

I'm pleased you now see the wall, which must tumble. But before we tumble the wall, we have to get to it.

I have never received so much abuse before, as I have received, from commenters from eureferendum, after writing my initial comments there suggesting a possible strategy that Cameron may be following. The political internet is not for wimps. There are some nasty folks out there. Richard North attracts a few, but is not one himself. He gets frustrated and very angry, but he holds the level - just about - although the sexual cartoons of Cameron might make it impossible for him to be seen on platforms with those who seek future position. They are not that funny. Why bother to publish them on a serious blog?



As I could not place my comment this morning on eureferendum, I'm parking it here.

ONE MORE THOUGHT -

Eurosceptics who doubt Cameron should want him to have the biggest majority possible.

Why's that?

Because the job now is to educate the public.

It would be possible for him to 'tolerate' open rebellion amongst MPs over the EU, if he has a huge majority, Conservative eurosceptic MPs against Cameron, with Labour down 122 MPs, as one prediction today, would become the effective opposition. The ensuing battle between a brilliant sheep impersonator, and his rebellious MPs would become the story, the narrative.

From there the public could be educated.

'Cameron the sheep'-haters should therefore vote for him in droves, so they can then form a Parliamentary sub-group, in opposition to any sell-outs.

If Cameron only has a majority of 60, he would have to silence opposition in his own ranks. If he has a majority of 200, he could tolerate a certain amount of noise.

Hague On Marr Show Re EU

From 10 am Sunday morning 8th November 2009

Marr - re Afghanistan

Hague - we need to communicate with the public more evenly. the communication is news driven , which means casualty driven. It needs regular reporting of the situation. People have to see there is a strategy they can believe. In the new strategy, coming from Obama, there needs to a strong civilian effort, not a pro-consul, a powerful coordinating figure from the international community.

Marr - difficult public spending situation..

Hague - there hasn't been a stragegic defence review for ten years. In 2004 Labour cut the helicopter budget by 1.5 billion. a big mistake.

Marr - did you seriously think you would go ahead with a Lisbon referendum.

Hague - it's not a simple matter and needs explaining. Referendum can no longer stop the Lisbon Treaty going ahead.

Marr - your new proposals are locks on stable door minus a horse.

Hague - a particluar horse. whenever any government transfers powers to Europe, there will be a referendum.

Marr - there won't be a transfer of power or a traety for years.

M - social and welfare policy? paternity leave. 4 weeks holiday

H - not those, but things like agency regulations. things we can ask for which are damaging our economy.

m - eu says don't make a list of demands. we're not interested

h. we have to pick our time. no quick 6 months bust up

m - nothing will happen

h - it will. i am determined. the economic problems will be on our mind 24 hours a day. we don't need a crisis with the EU.

m - so it's business as usual

h - we will be working with our EU partners.

m -

h - we will challenge other parties to agree about a Sovereignty Bill.

m - it's a gift to ukip

h - we cannot pander to fringe parties

h - fringe parties will have no impact, if you want change, vote conservative

m - abuse from foreign ministers. business as usual.

h - steady promotion of our national interest. we will be tough negotiators.

m - MP's expenses..........................

Eurosceptics Plan Their Next Match

The Eurosceptics in the media are putting up a big moan this week, at the end of the lost 'Stop The Lisbon Treaty' game. Cameron is being accused of deception by one and all, failure to keep promises and so on. But really it's time to grow up, Eurosceptics, and look to the next match. You lost Lisbon 6-0. Now stop blaming the Captain.

He played a good game. He was let down by the Irish Goal-keeper and the Czech striker, but their poor contribution was caused mostly by injury, and disgraceful off-field behaviour of opponents. The Captain did his best.

Of course, it's disappointing when your team gets stuffed in an important match. But the Season is still going on, and if the moaning attitude doesn't stop, the team could end up being relegated. There's still everything to play for.

The problem is that you have an excellent Team Captain, but as he was trained in the West London Upper League, spending time with the Bullingdon Lodge, many of the solid team-supporters from around the regions can't quite get what he's on about.

Allow me fill in the gaps in what Cameron is saying, for you.

'You guys can start pulling the wall down, and I won't send in the cops or the army. The judges will be overridden by the Sovereignty of Parliament, or other pressures we can deploy.

If the Feds send in the cops or the army from over there, the political consequences would be big enough to bring a majority referendum for out.

Now come on, Fellas. Play your part of the game. And stop yer moaning. This is the big EUSSR match we've been talking about a long time. We know how to deal with USSRs. We sorted one of those not all that long ago. The best tactic is to take apart their defensive wall, by getting their excessive number coaches all falling out with each other.

The match team talk will be delayed until after the supporters have chosen the new manager and directors. The last ones have unfortunately bankrupted the Club. Don't worry, we have backers from City. Later this year, betting on The Metric League Cup is expected to swing heavily in favour of the Martyrs. Chin up, Lads, and get back to work.'

Farage And Miliband Don't Get Cameron

Farage is trying to raise capital out of the latest Conservative EU policy statement given by Cameron on Thursday. Writing in The Guardian, he expands his argument thus -

The Dutch said: "There is more chance of a snowball surviving hell than the EU restarting debates on treaty change."

The Poles said: "Without having Brussels and other European capitals on side, London will be marginalised."

The Spanish likewise: "I do not know of a single country in Europe that now thinks we should be spending any time to change the treaty we have just spent eight years negotiating. It is really, really impossible."

My old sparring partner, Dick Roche, in Ireland points out: "There is a complete aversion across Europe to the idea of going through the kind of process we have just gone through for the last 10 years."

And the French in their characteristically brusque way have said that "it is out of the question that there would be any renegotiations".

Fat chance Dave. And you know it.

But Nigel, it's much simpler than that. To the word 'NO' there is no argument or negotiation offered or required. It's the language of non-recognition, non-obedience, non-compliance, call it what you will. Cameron is saying 'NO. I am not playing this game any more.'

He's not asking or negotiating. He's telling - something Nigel Farage cannot yet fathom. Here is a eurosceptic Conservative Prime Minister-to be, getting ready to say what he wants to happen, and who doesn't recognise the moral or democratic legitimacy of the EU as it applies to Britain.

The Dutch, the Poles, the French and anyone else can line up and express irritated opinions, but if Cameron's not playing, Cameron's not playing. NO does not need a vote. NO does not need any more hesitation or thought. NO is NO. It is final.

The Germans are strangely silent. The one comment from a Die Welt journalist speaking on Newsnight was that many people in Germany feel that Cameron is expressing exactly what they feel about the EU. It's gone too far and has to stop.

Now Nigel Farage, you didn't mention that side of the conversation, did you!!!

PICTURE - Farage outside the institution that, this week, has banned him and all other MEPs from having passes. Will he soon walk inside as an elected representative?

Maybe he will, but his old anti-Conservative lines are ageing fast in the new era of Conservative open EU-disobedience. He will need to find a new angle of attack as the Lisbon Treaty period, and taking the EU game and its all preposterous self-importance seriously, is passing. The bogeymen are no longer conforming to type. Cameron is incorruptible.

Without the same old easy targets, snake-like Blair, secretive brooding Brown, evil lying Clegg, or merely wimpy old Hague, Farage's raison d'etre will just fade away. He must be sensing the change and wondering how and where his new lines will come from. The new generation will soon be taking over. For Farage, life will never be the same.

Another politician who cannot fathom Cameron's approach to the EU is David Miliband.

David Miliband said this morning at the Fabian Conference that they will be campaigning against Cameron on his new EU policy as being either meaningless or dangerous, as it will lead to Britain leaving the EU.

But David, if it's meaningless, it's not dangerous. And if it's dangerous, it's not meaningless. And if it is dangerous, Farage is out of a job.

Herr Britler Prepares For Gotterdamerung

With news that the GE might be called to take place earlier than previously thought, before Budget Day, possibly on March 25th, I had the following thoughts to offer on CH.

Damn. I just arranged with my company to come back to the UK in April. Could Gordon Brown possibly reconsider?

Mind you Cameron can get at the Finances two months earlier. OK. Yes. That is more important.

Brown has transformed again.

At first he was described as Labour's answer to Stalin.

Then Vince Cable realised he was more like the selfish and incompetent Mr Bean.

This was followed later by comparison to tragedy incorporated, Heathcliff from Wuthering Heights.

But now, amidst the dying embers of his regime, it's 1945 all over again. Britler is back in his bunker. With Tory artillery landing on the roof, he's determined to destroy the ungrateful country that failed him.

General Cameron's tanks have reached the Thames Embankment. The Failure's preparing suicide pills for Mandelson and Milband, as he reaches for his revolver.

See Scorched Earth Policy on CH.

Helmer Hannan and Cash Are Out Of Time

The three flouncers, who declared public opposition to the abandonment of a referendum on Lisbon, as named above, received scant support. Two years ago, Conservative eurosceptics would have been cheering from the rafters, egging them on. So why not now?

One reason is that it's only months away from an election, and no matter how much justification there might be for a flounce, there is more appetite for winning power, than there can be for any policy.

Another is that Cameron's new policy is not without interest to eurosceptics. Yes Lisbon is signed and all its hateful terms will now be applied with glee by the obnoxious creeps who adore and staff the EU, which must stick in the craw for those who had hoped that it would be stopped. But the moment Lisbon was lost, it makes sense to move onto a Lisbon non-recognition and non-cooperation platform which is what Cameron has done.

But third the lack of support for the flouncers tells you one more thing. Cameron is winning support,not just because he wears a Conservative badge, but because people like him and want him to be Prime Minister.

That is the biggest change of all. When he was acting the me-too Blair pre-Blair's resignation, he was detested by eurosceptics who believed they had been sold a pup. But up against Brown, Cameron has grown in confidence and stature, to the point where he provides reassurance to people.

The times are worrying, and trouble, we all can see, is on its way. Here is one possibility for Britain to at last find a Prime Minister capable of running the country well, at a time when we need good government. People sense that, and so the appetite for rebellion against Cameron, which was strong in 2006 and 2007, is now almost non-existent.

Here is the first sign that the Conservatives are now truly a united force. The DUP are on board. The eurosceptics. People from right across the country are getting ready to rally to drive Labour out of power, sick of the bankrupt mess they have created.

Blair's attempt on President was pushed to one side with one puff by Cameron. Miliband is merely nuisance value as EU Foreign Secretary, and good advertising of how arrogant personal ambition has sent Labour and Britain into a political blind ally.

Cameron's moment is here.

The only criticism in the media is coming from the Daily Mash.

Revealingly the first line of the 'bit of a fishing trip' article tells it all -

Mr Hague received a mauling from Conservative candidates disappointed at the leader's U-Turn on Europe..

The article continues,

Mark Reckless, an ally of Tory MEP Daniel Hannan, who stood down from the frontbench in Brussels in protest at the policy change, hit out at Mr Hague's handling of the affair.

He said Mr Cameron's plans offered 'three proposals to entrench the status quo' in Brussels rather than 'reverse the process'.
He asked Mr Hague: 'Do you understand the sense of disappointment with regard to you personally?'

But Mr Hague stressed that voters are more interested in the economy and schools than in Europe as an issue.

But, even here, not a glove was laid on David Cameron.

French Want Cameron Castrated.

In an interview on the BBC's Newsnight last night, French Foreign Minister Pierre Lellouche attempted to explain his comments that Conservative policy on Europe was "autistic" and would "castrate" UK influence in Europe, saying they had been mistranslated.

How exactly, one wonders can the word 'castration' be mistranslated?


He said that, in his relations with William Hague, "On Europe it seems like we cannot talk...I've been talking to him over the year and it doesn't make a dent. There's no listening, no exchange on this."

The Guardian notes that Hague dismissed the comments, saying "We won't be put off by one emotional outburst from one minister. I think more senior members of the French government would take a more careful approach." He added, "We will stick up for our national interests, which French ministers never fail to do, by the way."

German opinion seems more supportive.

speaking on Newsnight, Die Welt's London Correspondent Thomas Kielinger said that there had been an over-reaction to Cameron's speech by many European politicians.

He added, "There are a lot of eurosceptics in Germany on the ground - people who feel rather sympathetic to the way Britain is trying to re-evaluate what Europe is about, what Brussels should be - who don't speak up because the powers that be in my country are holding such a strong hold over public opinion that they won't let these voices come to the fore."

Quotes from Open Europe.

Vote Fraud In Britain

North Asks Where Cameron's Big Stick Will Come From

Richard North has decided that because he cannot see a big stick that therefore one does not exist. And because no EU renegotiation can occur without a basis of threat, he sees Cameron's position on EU renegotiation as fundamentally a lie.

That is to misunderstand the basis on which people give their consent to political leadership or government. While the economy prospers and people are making money they will agree to nearly everything done by their governments. When the economy turns nasty, then the opposite process kicks in and people attack their governments over nearly everything, and kick them out.

The western economies have been through many long years of debt-fuelled growth. The debt cycle has now topped and people are retrenching, bringing the economy down step by step. Only massive government spending which is unsustainable, is keeping the wolf from the door, and holding up the political cycle at the moment. This cannot go on much longer, and all the money is being used to prop up asset markets, which are rising at their fastest pace ever in history.

When the mood changes over to 'bear' mentality again, which it will, Cameron's programme of repatriating powers will move from a minority sport supported by a few to a majority position, from a population angry and wanting revenge. Cameron cannot go in advance of the economic and social mood changes. He has to ride them. It would have been unthinkable for a speech such as the one just made by Cameron, to have been heard pre-2008. But after that autumn briefly shocked the world, and kicked many places into a downward spiral, a new politics becomes possible.

This is the one factor that you are not considering, Richard. The EU is an expensive 'bull market' political phenomenon. The bear will bring it down. Cameron is ahead of the wave, and is waiting to ride on it. He cannot create a force that will undo the works of a generation, but he can take the political ride which the next phase will offer. One man cannot create the events you desire, but he can anticipate them. If you start to see events as less directly 'this causes this therefore this', you would have more scope to tolerate human failings such as the odd deception or even outright lie.

After all Macchiavelli instructed us that politicians have to lie, but they must try not to be seen as liars nonetheless. See the rise and fall of events, of empires, of economies, and see the big forces that shape the world as unstoppable by any human being, and don't expect one mere mortal to change the fundamental basis of life for you. It will ease your political thinking, and get you out of your scientifically minded trench.

Cameron can be depicted as King Knut trying to hold up the waves, as you like to see him. Equally he could be seen as someone reading the tides and seeing that there is a change on its way. He's just moving his boat down the beach, to where the flow will lift him up and set him on his way. The force is the sea, not the boat.

Sarkozy Attacks UK Wallet. Perfect!!!!

Angry French Europe Minister Lellouche, speaking on behalf of French President Sarkozy, lashed out today at Cameron's new European proposals, and went straight for the wallet.

From First Post -

If the Tories are elected next May/June and carry out their pledge to repatriate powers from Brussels, Lellouche warned the French would seek to reduce Britain's EU budget rebate.

"If we get a government that is ferociously anti-European, that will vote down this kind of legislation, then I think the relationship is going to be very difficult. As we enter the next phase, one of the issues we have to discuss mid-term is, of course, finances.

Wonderful!!!!

Just what we need, some scalded cat Frenchmen, offering to fight red-blooded Brits about money. Except, that is not the top of Cameron's shopping list, as it happens. The French have skipped the real agenda, which is about sovereignty, and tried to pull Cameron into a slugging match over cash. Surely they realise an Old Etonian would not lower himself to that level.

The more violent and vicious the attacks on Cameron from abroad, the more his wobbly eurosceptic wing will rally round him. To the eurosceptics, a referendum to stop Lisbon is the only acceptable medicine, but a verbal punch-up with Sarkozy would go a long way to providing an alternative means of satisfaction.

Cameron need only smile politely in return as Hague did in his BBC interview, as awful words were spoken accusing him of autism and worse.

The BBC stooges, as usual, spoke as if on the side of the French, and the opinions of viewers will no doubt swing against the EU in droves, as a result.

If the EU heads for the British wallet, they could not possibly do more to assist Cameron in his political hour of need.

PICTURE - Poison Dwarf Sarko, whose glamorous wife Carla Bruni towers above him, finds the only piece of beach where he can look the same height as her!!

Meanwhile - from Oracle -

Clearly Labour are very confused about what line to take, and rightly so I think. They veer between ‘Cameron retreat shows he’s a Europhile after all’ and ‘Cameron’s extreme Eurosceptic line causes rift with our European allies’.!!!!!!!!

Vive La Confusion..!

Cameron To Have Last Laugh On Lisbon

The reaction to Cameron's speech has been to take it seriously by the EU, and to attack it as insufficient by the Eurosceptics.

It is, in essence, a declaration of non-obedience to the Lisbon Treaty.

It is very similar in spirit, to the statements of many in the blogosphere prior to Lisbon's final ratificiation. On www.eureferendum.blogspot.com, for example, Richard North coined a phrase - 'Neither Loyalty Nor Obedience', which I complimented.

The funny thing is that now Cameron is doing exactly as specified, in similarly expressing a programme of non-obedience to the EU, by challenging Lisbon in the detail, as it cannot be stopped in the main, the eurosceptics are going crazy with frustration and rage, accusing Cameron of selling out.

Bill Cash exploded even before Cameron spoke. Roger Helmer and Dan Hannan had the grace to wait until after the speech, but all of them and many others are sulking because the main Lisbon battle has been lost.

But all these people should realise that the war is not over yet, and assassinating your general will not solve the problem, especially as the general has declared a new battleground. He has not surrendered, as they seem to suggest he has.

What confuses people is that the primary battleground is not in the House of Commons, nor is it so much inside the Party, but in the minds of the public.

The battle is simply to make people realise that they don't want the EU. But as the media controls the dissemination of all information, and, bar The Sun newspaper and The Express, all are to a greater or lesser extent beholden to, or frightened of, or controlled by the EU, the fight is skewed against us. The primary forum for this battle is the media, and that fact comes first.

The blogs help to some extent, but not really as they create cult-like lakes where the role of the media is not understood, and where rebellion against Cameron can fester. The reason Cameron might win this contest in the end, is that he is of the media. He understands the the terms of the contest, and realises that you approach the target facing sideways, like a crab.

To most bloggers that means he is suspect in itself, but only a media person can hope to fight this war and succeed. It is a media war, and Cameron is proving to be a master of the art. He deserves more support from his own Party at this critical moment, but I fear they don't understand what is going on, and will hurt themselves by directing fire not against the enemy, but against their colleagues and fellow travellers, who want the EU's rule of Britain ended immediately.

The opposition are moving quickly to block Cameron, sending Miliband to act as EU Foreign Secretary, and parachuting Mandelson back into the Commons into Miliband's South Shields seat. Once they see the enemy are on manoeuvres to block Cameron's Lisbon non-obedience rebellion, maybe the eurosceptics will then realise that the battle has moved on, and rally round their only leader.

It would be tragic if the eurosceptics were defeated not by the EU, but by themselves. They too need to face sideways as they rally to the non-obedience cause. The time for open warfare is over. We are all guerrillas now.

It could be highly entertaining too, sending EU politicians into fits of rage as they cannot understand why we don't buckle to their commands. They will have to endure death by a thousand Cameron cuts. A quick bullet for the EU might have been preferable to all sides, but hey let's enjoy what life is sending along instead.

Watch out for that Cameron smile. It's a lot more deadly than his bite.

FURTHERMORE -

Either an IN/OUT referendum could be won or it could not. That is the nub of the matter. All other considerations are son of that.

The electoral system is in tatters with postal voting fraud now commonplace, and ballot box tampering and stuffing getting easier with overnight storage.

Before any vote of any kind can take place, voting in Britain has to be regularised. Cameron's gone as far as he can pre-a general election, in which he will face fraudulent practices on the grand scale.

You (the referendumists) overestimate your strength as a result. Only once the electoral and voting processes are put back together, can any vote take place. Without a vote or referendum, Britain will not leave the EU.

1. Cameron has to win the GE
2. He has to regularise postal voting and ballot box storage and management.
3. He has to prepare the electorate.
4. He can then hold a referendum.

Now that will take not 6 months, but maybe longer, like up to 6 years. Then we will win. All he has done today is set out the future direction for the game. Please relax everybody. Politics is not science, engineering or mathematical calculation. Neither is it law, as in the final analysis law is subservient. Politics is an art, and Cameron is a fair artist.

Reply November 05, 2009 at 10:36

Cameron Does Enough - And More

From The Commons -

The part of the speech which has been missed by most commentators is that Cameron has extended his promise of a referendum, not only to cover any further Treaties, of which there might not be any or many, but to any substantial transfer of powers from Britain to the EU.

This can even be if those powers are being transferred by extending the ratchet, from unanimity to Qualified Majority Voting. A proposal within the EU to change any heading to QMV could trigger a referendum. There could be a referendum every month.

I jotted down these notes as the BBC broadcast the Cameron speech.

The cast iron guarantee?

David Blunkett - made of plywood.

From 4PM News Conference -

CAMERON

Lisbon is ratified. Our campaign is over. Lisbon is incorporated into EU law.

We cannot make the Lisbon Treaty disappear. People will resent the fact that a referendum cannot be held. It is the fault of Blair and Brown. We fought for a referendum. We would have held it had it not been ratified.

Today I will speak directly to the British people. Ho can we salvage something from the mes Labour have left us. And I want to tell the EU what they can expect.

This will never ever let it happen again.

We will amend the European Communities Act 1972, requiring a referendum for any exension of EU power, including the Euro.

Others want a referendum on anything for the sake of it. I don't think a made-up referendum would work. We will have mandate for a renegotiation after the manifesto.

There is more we can do.

Sovereignty of our laws. We have no written constitution. Courts might think that ultimate authority will reside outside this country. We will bring a Bill that ultimate authority lies in Britain, as the German Constitutional Court has decided for Germany.

Lisbon allows further powers to be transferred in the future. No need for new treaty. We do not agree that these ratchet clauses can be used. If used, the clauses will be reviewed by Parliament.

Steady and unaccountable intrusion of the eu into every aspect of our lives.

social and employment legislation.

We will want to return the opt-out from social and employment legislation.

We will want an opt-out completely of the Charter Of Fundamental Rights.

We will negotiate an opt-out of the Criminal Justice System. Only British authorities to investigate inside Britain.

BUT

We cannot do this unilaterally. We will need the agreement of all 27 member states. This will need complicated legal advice, the expertise of the Foreign Office. It will make a precedent that powers can be returned.

ESSENTIAL, REALISTIC, DELIVERABLE..

BUT what if we cannot get these guarantees?

We would return to this subject in a manifesto after the next election, we would return to these issues in the next manifesto. I am not ruling out a referendum in the next parliament, covering a wider spectrum of powers. But that is for the future.

EU

We look forward to working with our partners, to entrench stability in the Western Balkans, extend to Turkey, strong and open relations with India and China. A tough settlement, vigilant and tenacious in defending the competitiveness of the City Of London.

Britain's interests are best served by an association of states. We will watch closely how the Lisbon Treaty pans out.

We need plain speaking. Lies and spin no more - what can we achieve and how are we going to do it.

QUESTIONS -

Question - Where are the boundaries between issues that trigger a referendum, and those that don't?

Answer - We don't intend to agree with any ratchet clause. Any turning a shared competence into an exclusive competence would have to be subject to a referendum.

Question. You backed out of Lisbon referendum? Trust?

Answer. Lisbon is now EU Law.. I said I would set out my stall. I am doing it now.

Question - Are you worried about losing votes over this? Is the ultimate court the Supreme Court? If so that is inside the EU.

Answer The 1922 committee backs this platform. These is party unity. The Sovereignty Bill will stop the steady legal drift to European Law. Further details to come.

Question - Are you downgrading your policy on Europe, settling nerves in Brussels.

Answer -

Question - Guardian - can you give cast iron guarantee that there will be no further reduction in the British rebate. And can you guarantee the Luxembourg compromise about QMV.

Answer - Blair gave away the British rebate for nothing. We want europe budget controlled properly. across a parliament. no six month euro war to achieve it all at once.

q. what will happen to the supreme court? what's the point of it. Are you trying to leave?

a. stop legal drift into areas that the eu judges have not yet gone. same objectives as the german constitutional court. we need a law as we don't have a written constitution.

q. will the law be drawn tighter than the judgement of the German Court?

a. we need to put beyond doubt that the final arbiter of issues are British institutions, not EU institutions.

q. economist - you say you don't want to rush into a bust-up with the EU. What will it be? What concessions? What threats?

a. achieve this across a parliament. We can get guarantees appended to Accession Treaties. Working Time Directive worst impact is hurting maternity units and our Fire Service.

q. practicalities of the supreme court not being supreme. Asserting primacy of UK legislation, why cannot that be retrospective?

a. prosecutions can only be brought by british institutions. a lot of expertise and advice needed.

q. el correro. Inconceivable that a referendum held will be perceived as anything serious in rest of Europe. This is only a volte face, run by domestic issues. Will you in fact be a committed europhile later on like Tony Blair?

a. People will have to accept the status quo.

BBC comments -

How much is the promise worth? Is this realistic? Are his ideas meaningful?

Negotiating powers back. Right

National Sovereignty Act guaranteeing British Law is supreme over European Law. Putting that through parliament would be hard for him to negotiate. BBC don't like it! We will need to see precise details.

FARAGE (reported not read) - deceit from Cameron. not credible. not doable. too little. too late. Vote UKIP.

CARSWELL - (speaking) we need a referendum on our relationship with Europe. EU changed since 1975. MPs promised to have a referendum. Lisbon is self amending. No need for any further Treaty. The Party of localism and direct democracy needs to challenge EU. (did not realise the referendum applies to the ratchet as w
ell as Treaties)

TIM KIRKHOPE - speaking from Brussels - Extremely good for Britain and the Conservative Party.

BBC - how easy will it be to repatriate powers?

KIRKHOPE - we have always been consistent about this. Reasonable to want these things repatriated. We want to make it clear we repatriate sovereignty over its legal position.

BBC - choking. Thank you.

Cameron Dithering Shows Weakness

Cameron has not declared a policy at the moment Lisbon was signed as he said he would. He's delayed his response by 24 hours. In that period he has seen a huge outpourring against him in the blogosphere, Bill Cash writing against him on Conservative Home, Hannan on TV disagreeing with him and now David Davis trying to set Party policy in the MSM, advocating a referendum within three months.

This 24 hour delay by Cameron has weakened his leadership inside the party considerably.

If his response at 4pm is weak, he will also lose much support in the country.

It would leave his leadership open to attack once he was elected PM. It would take a little more dithering Gordon Brown-style and we could see a Prime Minister thrown out mid-term by his own MPs.

Will Cameron Burn Tomorrow The 5th November?

Until Cameron has spoken at 4pm today, the colour of the new era is still unknown.

If he fails to offer anything of strength to hold back the eurosceptic surge of anger and determination,the Conservative Party is finished.

If he succeeds, by making a strong enough response, he will landslide.

Surely he will offer a big enough response. Why otherwise has he created this moment of high drama? So he can crash? It seems unlikely, and yet every eurosceptic in the business from Bill Cash down, is breaking ranks.

If he doesn't offer a good enough response today, the election becomes, as so many say, a method to get rid of Cameron. Whoever runs Britain for the next five years, becomes irrelevant. The long term takes over.

Today will decide the future of Britain for a generation. I understand and sympathise with the anger of eurosceptics, but until he has spoken, Cameron cannot be hung.

The rope is right now in his own hands. Will he place it around his own neck? We will find out at 4pm today. With Lisbon signed, the situation is dire. By sunrise tomorrow, interestingly the date will be the 5th November, we will know if we have to crash the Conservative Party, or if instead, the Conservative Party will be the vehicle of our future freedom.

The season of rebellion is upon us. Will the bonfires have the Lisbon Treaty as their effigy this year, or tomorrow will it be wee David Cameron that burns?



As if!!! Hat Tip - Guido Fawkes Welcome to The Lis-Burn Treaty.